A possible U.S.-China war in 2027 / China's plan to invade Taiwan analyzed by the U.S.

We will learn about what will happen when China attacks Taiwan with determination. 

In fact, China's invasion of Taiwan is not the kind of subject that we imagine for fun, like the Han Dynasty during the Roman Empire.

 

At this point, it's the most feasible war on Earth. 

In August 2022, the Chinese military service described Taiwan's Tsai-in-One regime as an obstacle to be removed, and even said that all options, including the use of force, should be considered for the reunification of the motherland.

 It is also widely believed that Xi Jinping, who recently confirmed his pardon, is preparing to invade Taiwan by 2027, when his third term ends, in order to seek further long-term power through the achievement of Taiwan unification.

 Like this, there is a growing possibility of war in Taiwan. So can China win the war?

 The Institute for International Strategic Studies in the United States, called csis, conducted its own Wargame, or virtual simulation experiments, 24 times to answer this question. Let me explain the specific scenario first.

This scenario starts with the assumption that China will attack Taiwan in 2026 at the end of Xi's third term. 

The first thing to come forward is also missiles and air force.

 The war begins by blowing up missiles from China, including the Dongfeng missile, and destroying branch facilities such as Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense and the Army, Navy and Air Command.

 At the same time, China's latest combat weapons, such as the J11 and J-20, will gather over Taiwan and bomb Taiwan's naval and air bases. 

While the Taiwanese are reeling from such a sudden attack, the Chinese will immediately launch a landing operation. 

They're going to try to land 30,000 large troops, including the Navy's Army Corps, on the coast of Taiwan as soon as possible.

 Of course, Taiwan has expected this far, so it will try to sort things out and somehow drive the Chinese off the coast.

 

Meanwhile, the fact that China invaded Taiwan by force will immediately be known to the world.

The United States, which has had a special relationship with Taiwan since the 2010s, will likely decide to intervene and deploy the Navy and Air Force from Guam Air Force Base in Japan.

 In other words, while the Taiwanese are somehow holding out on land, the U.S. Navy comes running and smashes the Chinese Navy that surrounds the Taiwanese.

 If this happens, the Chinese army that landed in Taiwan will also be cut off from supply, so the operation to attack Taiwan will inevitably go out of the way, and China's challenge will eventually fail.

 Having watched Wargame 24 times, csis expected the whole process to take place in about two weeks.

 Anyway, the conclusion is that China will fail, but csis warned that the damage to the United States, Japan, and Taiwan will be severe.

 Once off Taiwan, a major showdown between the U.S. Navy and the Chinese Navy is likely to take place, and in the process, up to two U.S. Navy aircraft carriers will be sunk.

 There was also a result that damage to destroyers and other water battleships would increase to 26.

In terms of troops, at least 3,000 U.S. troops will be killed in just two weeks, while Japan, which will be involved in this war, will be devastated as soon as the U.S. is decided to intervene.

 Of course, the U.S. military base in Japan, which will be attacked by the Chinese Air Force, is packed with equipment from the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, so up to 100 fighter jets and 26 warships will be destroyed.

 So what about Taiwan, the biggest party to this war?

 In the case of Taiwan, the country itself is likely to be devastated beyond the military's damage.

 Once Taiwan's navy and tools are likely to have already evaporated before Chinese troops land, and Taipei and other major cities will have almost all their infrastructure destroyed by air strikes.

In short, a country is disappearing.

 However, the damage caused by this war is probably the largest in China, which started the war.

 No matter how much you overpower the Taiwanese navy and surround the coast of Taiwan, more than 130 ships will disappear due to the U.S. Navy that rushed to run.

 It is also said that 155 fighter jets of the Chinese Air Force will also be destroyed by fierce fighting with the U.S. Air Force.

 On the other hand, if you don't break through the Taiwanese army, which is going to be the last defense off the coast of Taiwan, nearly 10,000 Chinese troops could melt in the ground war.

Fortunately for China, the U.S. Air Force is unlikely to bomb mainland China because the U.S. also does not want to expand its war in Taiwan into a nuclear war with China. 

So even if most of Taiwan's tools are destroyed, the remaining power in mainland China is preserved relatively safely.

 For your information, experts are divided on what role Korea will play when China invades Taiwan. To start with the conclusion of csis, it is unlikely that Korea will participate directly in this war.

 In addition, while some of the U.S. troops in Korea are leaving Taiwan, North Korea may take advantage of the confusion, and there is no reason for the South Korean military to go to Taiwan, which is not legally binding.

 Back to the point, csis highlights four major points of Taiwan while informing the expected damage by country through the above sophisticated analysis.

 The first is the strengthening of the Army. You may think that the naval and air forces should be strengthened to prevent China's landing on the island, but China's naval power is already far beyond what the Taiwanese military can do.

 First of all, the number of Chinese warships alone is more than three times that of Taiwan, and the number of aircraft is up to six times different, but that doesn't mean that the technology level is very low.

 In other words, no matter how much Taiwan struggles to build the latest fighter jets or warships one by one, the equipment will disappear as soon as the war breaks out, so rather raise an army and block the Chinese troops landing on the coast for as long as possible.

 If Taiwan's army is doing its job well, most of the Chinese navy that surrounded Taiwan will soon be destroyed by the U.S. Navy, and Taiwan's landed Chinese troops will soon lose their fighting power due to blocked supplies.

 On the other hand, Csis's second advice is to the U.S. military, not to the Taiwanese military, but to the U.S. military, but also a little more specific.

 In fact, the most important thing in the major scenarios of the war is how quickly the U.S. Navy pushes the Chinese Navy out of Taiwan's waters.

 If the process is prolonged and the Chinese troops who landed on the island of Taiwan take control of the whole of Taiwan, all the efforts of the U.S. Navy will be in vain.

 So this war is actually the concept of a timer tag. Csis was concerned that no matter how much the U.S. Navy's current power is ahead of the Chinese Navy, it would take too long to defeat the Chinese Navy if it insisted on the current weapon system.

 So in order to overcome this, we need to increase the number of anti-ship cruise missiles targeted at the Chinese Navy even now.

 And Csis's third advice is about Japan, a country that can't be left out of this war. 

As Taiwan's closest U.S. military base is located in Japan, the war scenario could be completely different if the U.S. military does not use it. 

For example, if most of the U.S. troops are currently stationed in Japan about 600 kilometers from Okinawa to Taiwan, and the U.S. military cannot use the Okinawa base, but only uses the Guam base 2,600 kilometers away from Taiwan, the confrontation with the Chinese Navy is that difficult.

 So the CSI conclusion is that in order for the U.S. to make a proper debut in the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, it must be able to utilize Japanese military bases.

Meanwhile, the think tank's last piece of advice ends with a reminder that Taiwan is an island nation by comparing the island nation with the de facto inland country of Ukraine.

 In this war, Ukraine was blocked by the Russian Navy at the same time as the war broke out.

 But Ukraine is still getting state-of-the-art equipment from the West.

 This is because the western part of Ukraine, far from Russian attacks, is well connected to NATO countries by land.

 So the Russian Navy's blockade of Ukraine didn't have much effect, and the U.S. supporting Ukraine also continued to deliver equipment over land leisurely.

 On the other hand, the situation in Taiwan is completely different.

 Taiwan is an island country, so if the Chinese navy surrounds the sea, all support is immediately cut off.

Even if the U.S. wants to support high-tech equipment, it won't be until it completely defeats the Chinese Navy.

 In other words, it is virtually impossible to provide stable support like Ukraine. 

So, based on this, Csis advises that Taiwan should take care of everything as much as possible before the war.

 Of course, the U.S. is also well aware of this fact, and has already sold Taiwan's advanced combat equipment for a long time. 

The specifications are m1a2 Abrams tanks, Patriot 3 missiles, Harpoon surface-to-ship missiles, Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, etc. 

But csis is pointing out that even this is too small and it's time for delivery to deliver.

 Of course, the world's best think tank, csis, doesn't know everything in advance.

 No matter how much you turn all the variables into mathematical models as much as you can and turn the virtual simulation around, it's just a scenario that the software handles.

 And the thoughts and wills that the people who actually have to fight this war continue to create another variable.

 For example, the Russian army would have played the war game in its own way in the Ukrainian war, but in the process, the Russian soldiers on the front line would not be able to calculate that they would give up the battle due to lack of morale.

 So I think you can say that War Game is just a valid prediction and not an answer that tells you everything.